Archive for the ‘Investment Strategies’ Category
PV Solar UK – The Leading Solar Panels Installers
Solar energy is the electrifying green revolution taking over the entire UK. The sun is at the keystone of existence so it is only right that it may be caught to provide you energy. Solar power is an effectual method of supplying energy not including the use of fossil fuels. Solar power is only restricted by the sunlight and it shall be about for a few more million years. Check out this fantastic site regarding solar panels installers.
If you are searching for a company that can assist, then PV Solar UK are there to assist The systems are prepared using the very latest photovoltaic power cell technology. The energy is captured by placing solar panels housed on a south facing roof. The pv panels absorb radiation by means of the sun through silicon cells. The capturing of solar radiation on the panels is then changed into electricity and is available to use in your house.
Solar energy is a tremendous choice and runs throughout daytime during the year. The technology is efficient and you could begin to see the advantages from incredibly early on. Photovoltaic modules are effortlessly fixed to the roof or walls of a house, be it the home or place of work. The pv panels are comparatively upkeep free and are adapted to survive over 20 years.
The government are exceedingly keen to present more restockable energy and there is funding available to proceed with your system. Additional energy fashioned by the pv system can be transferred back for a charge to the nationwide grid. Pv systems are altering the way we think about obtaining our energy demands.
Solar Energy is a great way of doing your bit to reduce carbon emission and help save money. Should you desire to know more then be sure to check out the site http://freeelectricity4u.co.uk/
Forex and Shares – The Effect of Social and Political Factors
The Currency Market Compared to the Futures Market
A Brief Blueprint to How to Make Cash with Forex Automatic Trading
It has been demonstrated that forex automatic trading can deliver the goods where finances are concerned. What reasons could you come up with not to use one? Contrary to what everyone says, it can be simple to earn additional cash during hours hitherto thought to be unsuitable. To slice through all of the effort of daily trading, you should restrict your searches to forex trader software.
To generate the maximum amount of income, experienced stockbrokers maintain an eye on the various market trends cautiously and can identify the best deals. Most of their day is committed to ensuring that their business continues to be profitable. With a forex automatic trader and the right approach, there is no need to put in that many hours and that much effort. To begin with, it is not recommended to go in unprepared and untrained and expect to earn a few thousand dollars — rather you should pace yourself and come to grips with it for a little while. The rehearsal will be invaluable once you genuinely get started up and running.
The forex automatic trader system has been designed to be customizable enough for you to input precise configurations based upon numerous specifications. The software is smart enough so that it can fulfill its preset directions on the nature of the trade that you wish to occur and the times involved.
A forex robot can only be as good as its owner, however, so you should bear the following bits of advice in mind. Firstly, the system does its best to produce results and to shelter you from losses — this is nonetheless not a definite guarantee. Its goal is to help follow through on your strategies and preferences when you don’t want to manually have to do it. It is now easy to trade when your shares go up, instead of waiting for when you are free. It does need semi-regular monitoring. So always remember to do periodic checkups. Forex trading is a quick and easy way to get the most from your investment, but it should be stressed that it isn’t a commitment that should be entered into without thought. Take an approach that is slow and methodical when dealing with your finances — take time out to learn the ropes. Utilize it in the correct manner and the forex automatic trader is ideal for trading, so why settle for less? Look into boosting your market shares with one today!
K-Designers Supplies a Plethora of Options in Exterior Renovation Products to Raise the Security of Customers’ Homes
K-Designers offer their buyers many unique storm door series to help them complete their house remodeling projects. They offer the Classic Elegance Series as well as the Prestige-Seal Series to serve the needs of their buyers looking to accentuate home front entrances. K-Designers mission is to choice when it comes to storm doors, assortment that manifests itself in quality products from leading notch producers.
K-Designers furnishes unique style options in storm doors and in design accessories for these doors. On example of their storm doors is their Prestige-Seal Series. This series consists of high-impact-resistant solid wood cores. They meet shoppers’ needs for doors that are long lasting and that do not rattle, twist, or warp. This collection also has a special surface for age and weather resistance. In addition, these storm doors have two color-matched adjustable speed closers.
Available in several color, style, and size options, these design accessories add to the outer ambiance of a home, and even add in their own small way to resale value due to enhancing the “curb appeal” of homes. K-Designers furnish a variety of storm doors including their Classic Elegance Series. This series features sophisticated collections and the strength of framing that customers’ need. This series features the Screen Away retractable screen and Easy Vent window system, which allow for one hand operation.
These K-Designers doors have an overlapping frame, which extends over the door seam. This is to seal out weather and conceal hinges for protection. In addition, this series features solid brass interior and exterior handles with built-in deadbolt security locks. This addresses house owners’ needs for quality protection, and the peace of mind it provides, from the exterior products they purchase.
K-Designers continue to source their storm door and garage door products, as well as their other house exterior products, from the best makers in the industry. This is to advance their goal of always providing superior quality to their clients. K-Designers mix this dedication to product quality with their allegiance to furnish quality storm and garage door installers to their buyers always.
A New Method of Dealing in Loans
Though in many ways in the modern era it looks like an obvious step, before this point the acquisition of loan portfolios has occured across several markets with no single outlet. Change has come about due to the creation of a business designed for dealing in portfolios employing a bidding format, similar in execution eBay. The packages assembled for sale on this national platform are offered to investors for bidding at substantial discounts to maximize your investment power. The sale of portfolio packages in this way provides for standardization of data and opens the market even for minor packages. Not only this, it will also support packages of all sizes, credit qualities and loan performance.
With the coming of a business model loosed from the constraints of time and location many other limitations are eliminated and savings are possible. Get better access to banks and investors through careful use of the reaching power that is a central tool of any web company: take care that what you have to offer is known to investors. Any and all possible leads need to be investigated and reached for them to learn you have packages they might be interested in. To optimize the identification process, those registered with this service will be given any access to information they request.
The better the data at your fingertips, the more profitable it will be to sell anything you have. During examination of any portfolio, transparent data gives you a fuller awareness of what you’re bidding for and in consequence helps reduce the overall exposure you operate with. The standardization of information on loan level lays the control of selling loan portfolios entirely in your hands, rather than in the hands of a broker or other third party. Direct negotiation with freely given data helps to put you in a position where both buyer and seller will mutually benefit. The preventation of fragmentation in packages ensures assessment is straightforward when it comes to identifying the right package. Time is not wasted in this manner: not simply for the investor but equally, of course, on the dealer’s part. Add to all this open bidding and any and all transactions become much more likely to be finalized with, thanks to open discussion, a firm likelihood of benefit for both sides.
Online trading is able to exploit the inexhaustible openings of the web business space. Trading in loans online expands your range, creates a standard for data and can supply you with the ideal portfolio to enhance your investments.
Visit and take a gander at our comprehensive page for sell notes advice!
Multi Family Lenders
Property investment has become an extremely well liked way for people to make cash. Owning a loft or multi family housing unit can be a way to wealth, however,property investing requires lots of time, knowledge and up front capital.Residence building financing, or multifamily property financing, is in a constant state of change. As a result, multifamily finance providers must have in depth knowledge and perception of available debt programs and be ready to quickly research financing options.
Most multi family or apartment loans have a thirty-year term with IRs from 4.7% to 6.625% for loans up to $3 million. I learned that most of the time these’smaller loans’ carry a little higher interest than loans exceeding $3 million and are named as ‘recourse’ loans ; in other words, if you default on the loan the lender may take ‘recourse’ by seizing your private assets. Loans above $3 million are termed as ‘non-recourse’, meaning private assets are protected in the event of a borrower default. Additionally, most banks offer basic options like fixed and variable rate loans.
There are two first ways to pursue multi-family buildings that leave your valuable liquidity intact. One is to secure seller helped financing to complement a loan, leaving you with almost no money of your own in the deal. The other is to use other people’s’s cash ( or OPM ) in the place of your own money. Each has its advantages and flaws and my focus in this article is to help illustrate how your display of the upsides to a multi-family investment can help you attract funding. The key to enticing funding is to recollect why you are making an investment in these properties in the 1st place. Multi-family properties are ideally acquired at a reduction, are located in areas where time and natural market conditions will increase their worth, and produce money flow. This time tested benefit of multi-family property ownership is a massive plus when securing funding for your deals.
I strongly advise that you summarise your loan scenario on one 8.5 X 11 inch bit of paper. You may be enticed to write a multi-page description full of details, projections and research. Don’t . The objective of the primary approach is to arrange a loan officer interested, nothing more. A borrower who has a bank requesting info is in a much better position than a borrower who is sending information uncalled-for. This strategy of approach will generate replies from interested lenders as-well-as denials from banks who can not help you. Those that are interested will request more info and if the deal fits with their standards they will issue a term sheet. The secret is to get them calling you, pique their interest first and then sell them the deal when you get them on the telephone. Before you know it you will be sat at the closing table.
Canadian Coalbed Methane Stocks: 7 Things to Know Before Investing
More investors are now inquiring about Coalbed Methane exploration companies. Just as uranium miners were flying well below the radar screen in early 2004, coalbed methane exploration may very well be the next very hot sector later this year and next. Historically, coalbed methane gas endangered coal miners, resulting in alarming fatalities early in the previous century. This is the fate suffered today by many Chinese coal miners in the smaller, private coal mines. Typically, the methane gas trapped in coal seams was flared out, before underground mining began, in order to prevent those explosions. Rising natural gas prices have long since ended that practice.
Today, coalbed methane companies are turning a centuries-long nuisance and byproduct into a valuable resource. About 9 percent of total US natural gas production comes from the natural gas found in coal seams. Because natural gas prices have soared, along with the bull markets found in uranium, oil, and precious and base metals, coalbed methane has come into play. It is after all a natural gas. But because it is outside the realm of the petroleum industry, coalbed methane, or CBM as many industry insiders call it, is called the unconventional gas. It may be unconventional today, but as the industry continue to grow by leaps and bounds, on a global scale, CBM may soon achieve some respect. Please remember that a few years ago, there was very little cheerleading about nuclear energy. Today, positive news items are running far better than ten to one in favor of that power source.
CBM is the natural gas contained in coal. It consists primarily of methane, the gas we use for home heating, gas-fired electrical generation, and industrial fuel. The energy source within natural gas is methane (chemically, it is CH4), whether it comes from the oil industry or from coal beds.
CBM has several strong points in its favor. The gases produced from CBM fields are often nearly 90 percent methane. Which type of gas has more impurities? No, it isn’t the natural, or conventional, gas you thought it might be. Frequently, CBM gas has fewer impurities than the “natural gas” produced from conventional wells. CBM exploration is done at a more shallow level, between 250 and 1000 meters, than conventional gas wells, which sometimes are drilled below 5,000 meters. CBM wells can last a long time – some could produce for 40 years or longer.
Natural gas is created by the compression of underground organic matter combined with the earth’s high temperatures thousands of meters below surface. Conventional gas fills the spaces between the porous reservoir rocks. The coalification process is similar but the result is different: both the coalbed and the methane gas are trapped in the coal seams. Instead of filling the tiny spaces between the rocks, the coal gas is within the coal seams.
One of the past problems associated with CBM exploration was the reliance upon expensive horizontal drilling techniques to extract the methane gas from the coal seams. Advanced fracturing techniques and breakthrough horizontal drilling techniques have increased CBM success ratios. As a result, a growing number of exploration companies are pursuing the early bull market in CBM. Market capitalizations for many of these companies mirror similar “early plays” we mentioned during our mid 2004 uranium coverage (June through October, 2004). Industry experts told us there would be a uranium bull market. Now, we are hearing the same forecasts about CBM.
SEVEN TIPS BY DR. DAVID MARCHIONI
We asked Dr. David Marchioni to provide our subscribers with his 7 Tips to help investors better understand what to look for, before investing in a CBM play. Dr. Marchioni helped co-author the CBM textbook, An Assessment of Coalbed Methane Exploration Projects in Canada, published by the Geological Survey of Canada. He is also president of Petro-Logic Services in Calgary, whose clients have included the Canadian divisions of Apache, BP, BHP, Burlington, Devon, El Paso Energy, and Phillips Petroleum, among others. He is also a director of Pacific Asia China Energy and is overseeing the company’s CBM exploration program in China.
Our series of telephone and email interviews began while Dr. Marchioni sat on a drill rig in Alberta’s foothills, the Manville region, until he finished outlining his top 7 tips, or advices, on how to think like a CBM professional.
1) COAL SEAM THICKNESS
Is there a reasonable thickness of coal? You should find out how thick the coal seams are. With thickness, you get the regional extent of the resource. For example, there must be a minimum thickness into which one can drill a horizontal well.
2) GAS CONTENT
Typically, gas content is expressed as cubic feet of gas per ton of coal. Find how thick it is and how far it is spread. Then, you have a measure of unit gas content. Between coal seam thickness and gas content, you can determine the size of the resource. You have to look at both thickness and gas content. It’s of no use to have high gas content if you don’t have very much coal. The industry looks at resource per unit area. In other words, how much gas is in place per acre, hectare, or square mile? In the early stage of the CBM exploration, this really all you have to work with in evaluating its potential.
3) MATURITY LEVEL OF THE COAL
This is the measure of the stage the coal has reached between the mineral’s inception as peat. Peat matures to become lignite. Later, it develops into bituminous coal, then semi-anthracite and finally anthracite.
There is a progressive maturation of coal as a geological time continuum and the earth’s temperature, depending upon depth. By measuring certain parameters, you can determine where it is in the chemical process. For instance, the chemistry of lignite is different from that of anthracite. This phrasing is called “coal rank” in coal industry terminology.
4) PERMEABILITY
When you are beginning to think about CBM production, this and the next item must be evaluated. How permeable is the CBM property? You want permeability, otherwise the gas can’t flow. If the coal isn’t permeable at all, you can never generate gas. The gas has to be able to flow. If it is extremely permeable, then you can perhaps never pump enough water. The water just keeps getting replaced from the large area surrounding the well bore. The water will just keep coming, and you will never lower the pressure so the gas can be released.
5) WATER
In a very high proportion of CBM plays, the coal contains quite a lot of water. You have to pump the water off in order to reduce the pressure in the coal bed. Gas is held in coal by pressure. The deeper you go, typically the more gas you get, because the pressure is higher. The way to induce the gas to start flowing is to pump the water out of the coal and lower the “water head” of pressure. How much water are we going to produce? Are we going to have to dispose of it? If it’s fresh, then there may be problems with regulatory agencies. In Alberta, the government has restrictions on extracting fresh water because others might want to use it. One could be tapping into a zone that people use as water wells for farms and rural communities. Both water quality and water volume matter. For example, Manville water is very salient so nobody wants to put it into a river; this water is pushed back down into existing oil and gas wells in permeable zones (but which are also not connected to the coal).
6) FUNDING
To be able to access land and do some initial drilling, i.e. the first round of financing, it would cost a minimum of C$4 million. This would include some geological work and drilling at least five or six wells. In Horseshoe, that would cost around C$4 million (say 1st round of finance); in Manville, about C$9 million. This is under the assumption that the company doesn’t buy the land. The land in western Canada is very expensive and tightly held. Much of the work is done as a “farm in” drilling on land held by another for a percentage of the play. (Editor’s note: During a previous interview, Dr. Marchioni commented about his preference for Pacific Asia China Energy’s land position in China because comparable land in western Canada would have cost “$100 million or more.”
7) INFRASTRUCTURE
The geology only tells you what’s there, and what the chances of success are. You then have to pursue it. Can we sell it? Gas prices are “local,” meaning they vary from country to country, depending whether it is locally produced and in what abundance (or lack thereof). How much can we extract? How much is it going to cost us to get it out of the ground? Are there readily available services for this property? Will you have to helicopter a rig onto the property at some incredible price just to drill it? Will you have to build a pipeline to transport the gas? Or, in China as an example, are there established convoys for trucking LNG across hundreds of kilometers?
One addition, which we have mentioned in previous articles, and especially in the Market Outlook Journal, “Quality of Management Attracts PR,” it is important that the CBM company have experienced management. This would mean a management team that includes those who have gotten results, not only a veteran exploration geologist but a team that can sell the story and bring in the mandatory financing to move the project into production.
There are two primary reasons why many of these coalbed methane plays are being taken seriously. First, the macroeconomic reason is that rising energy costs have driven companies in the energy fields to pursue any economic projects to help fill the energy gap. Coalbed methane has a more than two decades of proof in the United States. The excitement has spread to Canada, China and India, where CBM exploration is beginning to take off. Second, the fundamental reason is that exploration work has already been done in delineating coal deposits. There are, perhaps, 800 coal basins globally, with less than 50 CBM producing basins. In other words, there is the potential for growth in this sector.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and to other publications. His archived work can be found at http://www.stockinterview.com Feedback is encouraged and James Finch can be contacted by email at jfinch@stockinterview.com
Precision Money Management
This article describes the model of a natural relationship between trading system performance, trade position size, stop loss settings and profit goals. The model consists of algebraic equations that specify the trade size and stop loss settings needed to meet profit goals over a specified time period for any consistently used trading system for which historical performance data is available.
Most of us think of a trailing stop loss when the term money management is mentioned. William O’Neil in his book, “How to Make Money in Stocks”, used a value from 7 to 8%. Many stock advisories, including Stansberry and Associates, Outstanding Investments and the Oxford Club, typically use a 25% trailing stop loss. Option advisories use still higher values in the 35% range, as is done by Michael Lombardi, and up to as high as 50%, as used by Dr. Stephen Cooper. Trailing stops are typically used along with a maximum percentage of capital per trade to avoid large portfolio draw-downs in the event that a given trade goes badly.
Beyond this precaution, there is little theory to explain how position size and trailing stop losses should be arrived at, leaving the impression that they can be arbitrarily chosen based on one’s risk comfort level. However, this is not the case. Too narrow a stop loss setting can eat into profits by exiting volatile trades too early. Too wide a stop loss setting can eat into trading profits by consuming too much capital. A systematic way is needed to choose an optimum position size and stop loss setting to achieve a precise level of money management.
Intuitively, the higher the success rate in correctly choosing the direction of trade and the higher the average gain per trade, the looser one can afford to set his stop loss. However, when one has a specific earnings goal, this relationship needs to be more precise. Fortunately, the availability of consistent trading system performance data allows the use of an engineering approach. This approach enables us to define a very precise relationship between the average return for a series of trades, the percentage of correct choices in the direction of a trade, the size of each trade, profit goals and the appropriate stop loss settings.
The model introduced here for precision money management is based on average values of historical trading system performance and is only applicable when a trading system is consistently followed. The model should not be applied to unstructured trading across a variety of instruments requiring varying trading techniques. Each trading system or technique generates a unique set of statistics to which this methodology can be applied on an individual basis.
The model is derived based on fractional averages from information readily available to anyone that uses a trading system consistently. A pair of concise algebraic relationships evolves in the process. Finally, examples are provided to show the roles of position size and stop loss settings in meeting profit goals.
FP is defined as the average fractional profit for all historical trades being taken into consideration. FP is equal to the sum of the fractional gains and losses for all trades divided by the total number of trades N,
FP = (sum of fractional gains + sum of fractional loses) / N
In order for this to be valid, each trade must involve very close to the same amount of capital that we will assign an average value C. For example, if there were 3 historical trades resulting in +25%, -15% and +30% gains, the average fractional profit would be (0.25 – 0.15 + 0.30)/3 = 0.133. Of course, a much larger statistically significant number of trades would be used in practice.
Since the sum of fractional gains is equal to the number of gains NG times the average fractional gain FG, and the sum of fractional loses is equal to the number of loses NL times the average fractional loss FL, the definition can be expressed as,
FP = (NG FG + NL FL)/ N
It is understood that NG + NL = N. The value of NG divided by N equals FC, the fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction. NL divided by N equals (1 – FC), the fraction of trades chosen in the wrong direction. So N divided into NG and NL leaves the following form.
FP = FC FG + (1 – FC) FL . . . . . . . . . .(1)
Where,
FP is the average fractional profit for N trades that each uses an average amount of capital C
FC is the fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction
FG is the average fractional gain for NG winning trades
FL is the average fractional loss for NL losing trades
The fractional quantities can each be expressed individually as percentages but they should be expressed as decimal fractions in the equation.
In order to use equation (1), a profit goal must be established over a definite period of time. The profit per trade needed to meet a specific profit goal in a given amount of time depends on the number of promising trades likely to be identified by the trading system over that time period. The number of promising trades that become available within a given time period must be estimated judiciously because the last thing we want to do is force a trade under less than ideal conditions. In other words, we need to remain true to whatever system we are using.
For N trades each valued at an average capital amount C, the average fractional profit can also be defined by the total dollar profit goal DG divided by the dollar sum of all N trades DS,
FP = DG / DS
Since DS is equal to the average capital amount C times the number of trades N, this becomes,
FP = DG / (C N) . . . . . . . . . .(2)
Example 1:
Let us suppose that we have done a sufficient number of trades using our system to determine that the average fractional profit is 10%, the average gain per trade has been 29% and the fraction of times we chose the correct trading direction was 70%. Further let us set a goal to earn $3,000 per month. By our estimate, we figure that we can safely enter an average of 3 trades a week and remain within trading system guidelines. This equates to 3 trades per week times 4.33 weeks per month or an average of 13 trades per month.
Variables: FP = 0.1
N = 13
DG = $3,000
FC = 0.7
FG = 0.29
Solving equation (2) for C gives us the average size of each trade,
C = DG / (FP N) = $3,000 / [(0.1) (13)] = $2307.69 for the average size of each trade
Rearranging equation (1), the average stop loss setting FL must be,
FL = (FP – FC FG) / (1 – FC)
= [0.1 - (0.7) (0.29)] / (1 – 0.7) = – 0.3433 or -34.33%
Example 2:
Using essentially the same situation, we can look at what the effect of certain improvements in trading would have on the profits. Say we habitually exit winning trades too early and could possibly increase the average fractional gain FG from 29% to 36%. From the same relationship used for example 1, the resulting stop loss setting FL could then be widened to,
FL = (FP – FC FG) / (1 – FC)
= [0.1 - (0.7) (0.36)] / (1 – 0.7) = – 0.5066 or -50.66%
Example 3:
Let’s suppose that for a series of potentially high yielding trades we know that an extra wide stop loss setting of -60% is needed and we want to know what the effect will be.
First we might want to look at the effect of a wider stop loss setting on profits with everything else remaining constant. We do this by equating the right sides of equations (1) and (2) and solving for DG,
DG = (C N) [FC FG + (1 - FC) FL] . . . . . . . . . .(3)
= ($2307.69) (13) [(0.7) (0.29) + (1 - 0.7) (-0.6)] = $689.99
Clearly, our original monthly profit goal of $3,000 can not be met without some additional changes, such as an increase in the number of trades from 13 to 57 over the month period. But this is not feasible since it was already estimated that the maximum number of trades identified by the trading system would be only 13 per month.
Example 4:
Next, since the trades in example 3 are believed to be potentially high yielding trades, we might look at the increase in the fractional gain per trade FG needed to justify the wider stop loss setting of -60% and still meet the original profit goal. By rearranging equation (1),
FG = [FP - (1 - FC) FL] / FC
= [0.1 - (1 - 0.7) (-0.6)] / 0.7 = 0.4 or 40%
So the average fractional gain for winning trades FG would need to increase from 29% to 40% to justify a widening of the stop loss from -34.33% to -60%, keeping everything else the same while meeting the monthly profit goal.
The foregoing examples give insight into trading system characteristics that affect position size and stop loss settings. Narrow stop loss settings imply a smaller fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction or a smaller fractional gain for winning trades. Wider settings imply the opposite. Stop loss settings should not be arbitrarily set independently of position size, trading goals and trading system performance. Stop loss levels more or less define future profits for a given set of trading rules, whether the user realizes it or not. While it is laudable that traders are encouraged by their advisors to adopt money management, the recommendation of a specific stop loss value without knowing the profit goal and average position size can be misleading. When a trading system is used consistently, this model enables precise money management.
James Andrews authors a free newsletter at http://www.wisertrader.com where investment math formulas are developed at little or no cost. The site offers option alerts, free stock picks, an online forum, trading templates and advanced automatic trading systems.
© 2005 Permission is granted to reproduce this article, as long as, this paragraph is included intact.
Buying Stocks and the Importance of Correct Timing
An investor can find and research the best stock on the market, one with huge potential but if the general market indices are negative, it will most likely be the wrong time to buy. A stock with tremendous accelerating earnings, rising sales, an up-trending chart pattern and a strong industry group may sound excellent to buy but will mean absolutely nothing if the market is positioned to move in the opposite direction of your expectations. As soon as a stock is purchased, the time comes for an investor to make a decision to hold or to sell. If the position shows a profit, hold as your judgment is correct. If the position shows a loss, cut it quickly and don’t rationalize the situation before it doubles in size. Timing will play an important role in determining if you are right or wrong.
Losers must be cut quickly, long before they materialize into enormous financial disasters. They company and stock may not be a loser but rather your timing may be premature to a strong movement, forcing you to sell on a pullback. After a stock is cut from your portfolio, the transaction must be forgotten about and eliminated from your subconscious mind and/or emotional bank. The trade must be studied to capture the true essence of your mistake but the specific security involved must be blocked from any sentimental attachments, allowing you to consider reinstating the position at a higher level. This repurchase may take place immediately or well into the future but the important fact is that you were wrong with the timing on the initial position. The timing, also known as the ‘M’ in CANSLIM by William O’Neil, may have been wrong even though all fundamental and technical criteria related to the individual stock seemed to be perfect.
A quote from the great Gerald Loeb:
“Cutting losses is the one and only rule of the markets that can be taught with the assurance that it is always the correct thing to do.”
The wisdom shared by Loeb is easier said than done. Humans like to take profits and hate taking losses or admitting that they were wrong. Pride and ego distorts the clear thinking process that every investor must posses when following clear cut rules that provides insurance to their cash stake. Even tougher, humans refuse to repurchase anything at a higher price that they sold it previously. As Loeb states, only logic, reason, information and experience can be listened to if failure is to be avoided.
It is advisable to make a “test buy” in a shaky or unstable market which allows the investor to assess the general conditions with minimal risk but still maintain an emotional attachment. If the position goes bad, a small loss will be realize but the damages will be limited and the investor’s pride and ego can be repaired rather quickly. In a sense, the investor was half right by only initiating a partial position also known as a “test buy”. If the market was trending up, a “test buy” would not have to be established as the market direction would have been clear from the beginning.
When it comes to timing, an uneducated investor may realize better gains during a solid bull market based on pure luck than a seasoned investor will return in a sideways or unstable market. Following the trend will be the most successful route to consistent profits over the long haul. By watching the general market indicators, such as price, volume and daily new highs, an investor should know exactly what type of environment they are trading. The most important factor weighing on the stock market is the presence of public psychology, even more so than any fundamentals that the most intelligent academic analyst can compute. Technical analysis along with confirmation of the market trend allows us to see the combined thought process of the general public and tells us if the timing is right to buy or short a specific stock, regardless of the fundamentals.
In conclusion, we must understand that certain situations are only applicable during specific times. Buying leading stocks during a down trend is a sure way to multiple losses that are cut quickly. Shorting stocks during a raging bull is another sure way to financial disaster and margin calls. Don’t get discouraged if you take a few small losses consecutively as this is your rules telling you to stay out of the market at this time. The timing may be off even though the stock and research is favorable. Why would you swim upstream to reach your destination if you could jump in a boat and row downstream with the current another day? Before you ever start to immerse yourself into researching a stock to purchase, make sure you know the exact environment of the market and determine if it coincides with your objective. If it doesn’t, get ready to get slaughtered, especially if you don’t follow strict rules to cut all losses quickly.
Chris Perruna – http://www.marketstockwatch.com
Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don’t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.